Decoding the playoff picture?

By: Mark | October 21st, 2009

I’m not going to lie, I’ve given up on trying to figure out how the different scenarios for this weekend’s matches need to play out for Toronto to make the playoffs. The numbers are too much for me, so I’m going to just sit back and hope for a TFC win against New York and everyone else to lose. I guess that’s not entirely possible, but at least we know that if Toronto wins, they have a much better chance of making it in than if they lose!

Luckily there are other people out there to crunch the numbers, and this article by Kyle McCarthy at Goal.com sums up all the possibilities.

Here’s how McCarthy breaks it down:

“TFC would take second place in the Eastern Conference in the event of a four-way tie between Chicago (in the event of a loss to Chivas USA), D.C. United and New England. Even if Chicago wins or draws and Colorado wins at Real Salt Lake, the Reds would still stand to benefit if FC Dallas joins D.C. and N.E. in the win column because they would win a similar four-way tiebreaker on 42 points to grab the final playoff spot. TFC could also squeak into the playoffs in a three-way tiebreaker with FCD and either D.C. or New England. TFC would also win any two-way tiebreaker with D.C. or New England because it holds the season series edge over both United and the Revs. The basic scenario: if TFC wins in New York, it wants as many of its 39-point counterparts to win (or lose) as possible (and Colorado to lose or draw) so it doesn’t have to face and lose a head-to-head tiebreaker with FC Dallas.”

Got all that? It sounds like there are quite a few combinations of things that could happen that would benefit TFC, but if they win I’ll be happy. Finishing the season with 2 ties and 2 wins in their last 4 games is not too shabby. But there’s even a possibility that Toronto could finish in 2nd place in the east if the stars align correctly. So here’s hoping for a good showing in New York by Brennan, DeRo and the gang to finish this season on a high note!